Internet traffic for Bunnings and Masters

Source: Google Trends

It's no secret that sales at Bunnings are motoring ahead of Masters. Woolworths management continues to put on a brave face describing Masters as a long term investment and talking up new store formats.
Online the search term "Bunnings" is far, far ahead of "Masters."   Masters has been growing at a slow rate but this seems to have faded in the last six months.  In contrast Bunnings continues to make strong gains particularly in the last year.  Searches in December in the lead up to Christmas show a spike every year.

Internet traffic for JB Hifi and Dick Smith

Source: Google Trends

Probably best to never underestimate the importance of Christmas to a retailer.  The above graph shows google searches for the terms "JB Hifi" and "Dick Smith."
All the spikes represent the surge in searches in December of each year.  Looks like the clearance sale at Dick Smith from a couple of weeks ago certainly generated a lot of interest online with a massive spike at the right hand side of the chart.  With this exception online searches have been drifting sideways to lower which isn't a good sign for either retailer.

New lows for Woolworths

Source: Yahoo Finance

After spending the last six weeks going sideways and just holding above $23, Woolworths (WOW) has now broken the support level to be at a new 52 week low.
Their relaunched loyalty scheme has been receiving negative feedback and one wonders how or if this will impact quarterly sales.
Dividend yield continues to edge up now to 6.2%.

ANZ share price with Mike Smith

Source: Yahoo Finance

With ANZ shares currently trading around $26 there is a distinct possibility the shares will end lower than when Mike Smith commenced in 2007.  As compared to the impressive run under the previous CEO John McFarlane.

Telstra leads Optus in google searches

Source: Google Trends

The comparative graph above looks at google searches that involve the terms "Telstra" and "Optus". For a period in 2009 and 2010 more people were searching for "Optus" related phrases before a steady decline takes place and "Telstra" takes a commanding lead.

Interesting when you then compare this with the Telstra (TLS) share price.

Source: Yahoo Finance

In 2012 as Telstra takes back the lead from Optus in Google searches its share price goes on a nice bull run under CEO David Thodey.

Is Woolworths (WOW) relaunched loyalty scheme in trouble?

Fairfax columnist Michael Pascoe wrote a piece yesterday titled "Don't like: Woolworths Rewards Card fails the social media test." It seems in the land of Facebook everyone is up in arms over the changes to the scheme which involves no more Qantas frequent flyer points and buying products with little orange tags.  It's not a good look when someone's rant on Facebook quickly gathers over 40 000 likes.

The changes Woolworths have made to the loyalty scheme do seem rather curious.  Woolies sales are declining.  They need to boost marketing, cut prices and sacrifice margins to at the very least stop the slide in sales.  The new loyalty scheme hardly looks that exciting as Pascoe points out in his column and is simply aggravating shoppers even more.  John Durkan (managing director at Coles) recently said "our profits will grow through increasing sales and increasing transactions - the margin will be what the margin will be."  Protecting high margins is a key factor that has led to the mess that Woolworths now finds itself in.  One has to wonder whether they realise how much they need to slash margins to get back in the game.

Anyway back to Woolworths new loyalty scheme.  Is it really that bad or is it just a few people having a whinge on Facebook.  The graph below shows the number of google searches for the terms "flybuys" (Coles loyalty scheme) and "everyday rewards" (Woolworths loyalty scheme).

Source: Google Trends

Back in 2009 when Woolworths launched their Qantas alliance they had a nice little spike in people googling their loyalty scheme.  Coles relaunched their scheme in 2012 and had a massive spike in people googling the term "flybuys."  Since then they have been trending up quite nicely.

Woolworths scheme however has been showing a gradual decline.  And to make matters worse with the relaunch recently "everyday rewards" has fallen further while "flybuys" has made new gains. Ouch!

Telstra (TLS) share price with each CEO

Source: Yahoo Finance

• Took a couple of years from David Thodey starting before the share price showed some reliable gains.
• Andrew Penn (current CEO) has a tough act to follow.  Price has dipped a bit this year but still early days for Penn.

Woolworths (WOW) and Wesfarmers (WES) daily charts since January

Woolworths (WOW) daily chart since January.
Making an attempt to hold up at $24 and reach the middle of the channel.













Source: Yahoo Finance

Wesfarmers (WES) daily chart since January.
Chart is fairly similar to Woolworths (WOW).
Currently trading in the middle of its channel.

Source: Yahoo Finance

Source: Google Finance

10 year return of BHP and RIO

Source: Google Finance

• Both BHP and RIO now have lower share prices from 10 years ago
• Despite the focus on BHP's recent falls RIO has performed worse over the 10 year time frame.
• BHP's falls this year not nearly as severe as the falls in RIO during the GFC.
• Share price of RIO still above its GFC low where as BHP is falling beneath its GFC low

Weekly WOW chart

Source: Yahoo Finance

• Peak of $38.92 in April 2014
• Low of $23.05 in Nov 2015
• Dividend yield 5.8%
• Market cap 30b
• P/E 14

BKL chart

Source: Yahoo Finance

Getting a bit dizzy looking down from the top of the Blackmores (BKL) chart.

P/E ratio of 68.

Needless to say they have had an impressive year.

TLS up from November low

• TLS touched its 52 week low of $5.06 on 16th November 2015
• Has since rallied 10% in just over two weeks
• Dividend yield 5.5%
• P/E 16
• Still well down from its 52 week high of $6.73 on 4th February 2015

WBC share price on the rise

This graph shows the comparative performance of WBC, CBA, NAB and ANZ since July 1st.

Source: Google Finance

Westpac (WBC) is the clear leader with its share price now higher than where it was on July 1st.
ANZ by comparison is still lower by 13%

Woolworths still above $23

After touching a low of $23.05 in mid November the Woolworths share price has edged a bit higher but has generally drifted sideways over the last month.

Still a lot of unknowns within the company involving the next CEO, Masters and Big W.

Dividend yield currently a healthy 5.7%

Will the $23 support line be held? Mycharttrades offer some useful insights.

ANZ dividend yield falls to 6.5%

After touching a low of $25.01 in early November the ANZ share price has rallied over 10% and is currently almost reaching $28.  Reasonable GDP figures today will help all the big four banks.

November 10th:  Dividend yield 7.2% and PE 9.3

December 2nd:  Dividend yield 6.5% and PE 10.3

Dividend yields of top 10 ASX

1.   BHP    9%
2.   NAB   6.6%
3.   ANZ   6.5%
4.   WBC  5.7%
5.   WOW 5.7%
6.   TLS    5.6%
7.   CBA   5.2%
8.   WES   5.2%
9.   MQG  4.4%
10. CSL    1.6%

• BHP leads the list with the growing likelihood that its dividend will be cut.  A decision on this is not expected until February and commodity prices can fluctuate dramatically in the space of two or three months
• NAB and ANZ have yields of about 6.5%.  There is also talk that their dividends could be cut due to the large capital raisings this year.  This is looking increasingly unlikely in the short term as their share prices have rallied over the last couple of weeks.
• WOW 5.7%.  Who knows what will happen with WOW.  Who will the new CEO be? What will happen to Masters?  What will happen to Big W?  Will second quarter sales be positive?  
• MQG and CSL with lower yields have been by far the best share price performers over the year.